Major airlines worldwide are reducing flight schedules in May 2026 as jet fuel prices double and supply constraints tighten, driven by the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, 19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines have announced capacity reductions, with global planned capacity dropping three percentage points since early March. The war has disrupted Middle Eastern oil supply chains, trapping crude in storage facilities and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel before ceasefire talks briefly lowered prices. Jet fuel now costs nearly $200 per barrel, up from $100 earlier this year, forcing carriers to cancel routes, especially those with multiple daily frequencies or lower demand.

Supply Concerns Mount in Europe and Asia

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told the Associated Press on April 16 that Europe had roughly six weeks of jet fuel remaining. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned on April 17 that cancellations due to fuel shortages could begin in Europe by the end of May, adding that the problem was already visible in parts of Asia. However, European Union Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas denied on April 18 that Europe was near running out of jet fuel, stating that any cancellations by European airlines were linked to high costs, not supply shortages. The EU confirmed sufficient fuel supplies for airports and aircraft in the coming period.

European Airlines Respond

Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, is considering reducing routes. CEO Michael O’Leary told Sky News that jet fuel supply could be at risk if the war continues, with potential disruptions expected in May and June. KLM announced on April 17 that it would cancel 80 return flights from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, citing routes that were “no longer financially viable to operate” due to rising kerosene costs. The airline clarified there was no kerosene shortage. Lufthansa Group said on April 21 it would cut around 20,000 short-haul flights through October, trimming “unprofitable routes” in response to surging fuel costs. The move is expected to save more than 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. Lufthansa stated that passengers would still have access to long-haul connections from its six hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels, and Rome. Switzerland’s Edelweiss Air canceled flights to Denver and Seattle and reduced frequencies to Las Vegas, citing declining demand and rising fuel prices. Scandinavian Airlines cut about 1,000 flights in April, mostly short-haul routes in the Nordic region. Aer Lingus adjusted 2% of its schedule, including cancellations due to mandatory aircraft maintenance and schedule adjustments.

Asian Airlines Face Similar Pressures

Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic routes beginning April 1, according to local reports, as part of broader efforts to mitigate fuel shortages and mounting costs. Other Asian carriers have also begun trimming schedules, though specific details remain limited.

Cirium revised its initial 2026 growth forecast of 4% to 6% downward, stating that global capacity could decline by up to 3% under some scenarios. The situation remains fluid, with airlines monitoring fuel availability and costs as ceasefire talks continue. Industry observers expect further cancellations and route adjustments in the coming weeks, particularly in regions with limited domestic fuel production.